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Gabon vs Guinea-Bissau — Friendlies 2026

Gabon
Gabon
FT
2 – 0
Guinea-Bissau
Guinea-Bissau
6/9/2025FriendliesFriendlies · Friendlies 3Stade El Bachir

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 6+ matches

Gabon52%
×Draw23%
Guinea-Bissau24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gabon
1.78
Guinea-Bissau
1.13

Gabon creates 58% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 7 away

creates per match

Gabon
1.00
Guinea-Bissau
0.43

allows per match

Gabon
1.83
Guinea-Bissau
2.57

finishing

Gabon+0.00on par
Guinea-Bissau+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gabon ↓

Guinea-Bissau →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Gabon or draw
76%
Gabon or Guinea-Bissau
77%
Draw or Guinea-Bissau
48%

Winning margin

Gabon wins by 2+
29%
Guinea-Bissau wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Gabon 1+ goals
83%
Gabon 2+ goals
53%
Gabon 3+ goals
26%
Guinea-Bissau 1+ goals
68%
Guinea-Bissau 2+ goals
31%
Guinea-Bissau 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Gabon (draw refunded)
68%
Guinea-Bissau (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gabon at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.83 · 6 matches

Guinea-Bissau away — creates 0.43, concedes 2.57 · 7 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gabon attack 1.00 + Guinea-Bissau defence 2.57 → ÷2 → 1.78

Guinea-Bissau attack 0.43 + Gabon defence 1.83 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Gabon scores more
52%
level
23%
Guinea-Bissau scores more
24%

Gabon at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Gabon will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Gabon
Guinea-Bissau
T. Mouyouma
Manager: T. Mouyouma
Luís Boa Morte
Manager: Luís Boa Morte

Match Recap: Gabon vs Guinea-Bissau

Gabon beat Guinea-Bissau 2-0 in Friendlies on June 9, 2025.

The match was played at Stade El Bachir in Mohammédia.