Guimaraes 1–2 Farense: Result & Stats

Guimaraes

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Farense

5/11/2025

Primeira Liga · Round 33Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Guimaraes50%

×Draw26%

Farense24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuimaraesExpected goals in this matchFarense

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

1.00

Guimaraes

1.55

Farense

1.00

Guimaraes creates 55% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 51 away

1.57

creates per match

0.96

1.04

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Guimaraes

1.57

Farense

0.96

allows per match

Guimaraes

1.04

Farense

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guimaraes+0.00on par

Farense+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

Farense →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw

76%

Guimaraes or Farense

74%

Draw or Farense

50%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+

26%

Farense wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals

79%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

46%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

20%

Farense 1+ goals

63%

Farense 2+ goals

26%

Farense 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

67%

Farense (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

38%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 136 matches

Farense away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.53 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 1.57 + Farense defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.55

Farense attack 0.96 + Guimaraes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Guimaraes scores more

50%

level

26%

Farense scores more

24%

Guimaraes at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff