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Farense vs Guimaraes — Primeira Liga 2018

Farense
Farense
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Guimaraes
Guimaraes
5/6/2021Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 31Estádio de São Lúis

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Farense36%
×Draw28%
Guimaraes36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Farense
1.18
Guimaraes
1.19

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 51 home / 136 away

creates per match

Farense
1.04
Guimaraes
1.07

allows per match

Farense
1.31
Guimaraes
1.32

finishing

Farense+0.00on par
Guimaraes+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Farense ↓

Guimaraes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Farense or draw
64%
Farense or Guimaraes
72%
Draw or Guimaraes
64%

Winning margin

Farense wins by 2+
15%
Guimaraes wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Farense 1+ goals
69%
Farense 2+ goals
33%
Farense 3+ goals
12%
Guimaraes 1+ goals
70%
Guimaraes 2+ goals
33%
Guimaraes 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Farense (draw refunded)
50%
Guimaraes (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Farense at home — creates 1.04, concedes 1.31 · 51 matches

Guimaraes away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Farense attack 1.04 + Guimaraes defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.18

Guimaraes attack 1.07 + Farense defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Farense scores more
36%
level
28%
Guimaraes scores more
36%

Farense at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Farense will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Farense 2–2 Guimaraes

Farense and Guimaraes drew 2-2 in Primeira Liga on May 6, 2021.

The match was played at Estádio de São Lúis in Faro.