Guimaraes 2–0 Estrela: Result & Stats

Guimaraes

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Estrela

3/16/2025

Primeira Liga · Round 26Estádio Dom Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Guimaraes45%

×Draw27%

Estrela29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuimaraesExpected goals in this matchEstrela

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.41

1.08

Guimaraes

1.41

Estrela

1.08

Guimaraes creates 31% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 19 away

1.09

creates per match

0.92

1.25

allows per match

1.73

creates per match

Guimaraes

1.09

Estrela

0.92

allows per match

Guimaraes

1.25

Estrela

1.73

+0.20scores more than expected

finishing

+0.03on par

finishing

Guimaraes+0.20scores more

Estrela+0.03on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

Estrela →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw

71%

Guimaraes or Estrela

73%

Draw or Estrela

55%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+

21%

Estrela wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals

76%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

41%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

17%

Estrela 1+ goals

66%

Estrela 2+ goals

29%

Estrela 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

61%

Estrela (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.25 · 17 matches

Estrela away — creates 0.92, concedes 1.73 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 1.09 + Estrela defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.41

Estrela attack 0.92 + Guimaraes defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Guimaraes scores more

45%

level

27%

Estrela scores more

29%

Guimaraes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff