Estrela 2–2 Guimaraes: Result & Stats

Estrela

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Guimaraes

Rodrigo Pinho 84' (pen)

L. Bucca 45+1'

Tiago Silva 69' (pen)

Nuno Santos 43'

10/27/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 9Estádio José Gomes

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 17+ matches

Estrela39%

×Draw26%

Guimaraes36%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

EstrelaExpected goals in this matchGuimaraes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

1.32

Estrela

1.39

Guimaraes

1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

1.34

creates per match

1.25

1.40

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Estrela

1.34

Guimaraes

1.25

allows per match

Estrela

1.40

Guimaraes

1.44

-0.14scores less than expected

finishing

-0.31scores less than expected

finishing

Estrela-0.14scores less

Guimaraes-0.31scores less

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes55
No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Estrela ↓

Guimaraes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–19%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Estrela or draw

64%

Estrela or Guimaraes

74%

Draw or Guimaraes

61%

Winning margin

Estrela wins by 2+

18%

Guimaraes wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Estrela 1+ goals

75%

Estrela 2+ goals

40%

Estrela 3+ goals

16%

Guimaraes 1+ goals

73%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

38%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Estrela (draw refunded)

52%

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Estrela at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Guimaraes away — creates 1.25, concedes 1.44 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Estrela attack 1.34 + Guimaraes defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.39

Guimaraes attack 1.25 + Estrela defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Estrela scores more

39%

level

26%

Guimaraes scores more

36%

Estrela at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Estrela will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

10

Tiago Silva

Guimaraes · M

8.5

Match Events

-5'

Nani

32'

Tomás Händel

43'

Nuno Santos↳ Tiago Silva

45+1'

L. Bucca↳ Nilton Varela

50'

Ferro

58'

André Luiz← L. Bucca

69'

Tiago SilvaPenalty

73'

Manu← Tomás Händel

73'

João Mendes← Kaio César

74'

Rodrigo Pinho← Jovane Cabral

74'

Igor Jesus← Paulo Moreira

75'

João Mendes

82'

Manuel Silva

84'

Rodrigo PinhoPenalty

87'

J. Ramírez← Nélson Oliveira

87'

Bica← Samu

89'

A. Ruiz← Kikas

89'

Manuel Keliano← Léo Cordeiro

90+4'

Alberto Costa← João Teixeira Mendes

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

EstrelaGuimaraes

Overview

39%Possession61%

7Total Shots10

1.19Expected Goals (xG)1.46

3Corners4

17Fouls17

Shots

7Total Shots10

2On Target3

5Off Target4

0Blocked3

6Inside Box7

1Outside Box3

Passing

39%Possession61%

278Total Passes439

187Accurate Passes363

67%Pass Accuracy83%

Goalkeeping

1Saves0

-0.21Goals Prevented-0.21

Discipline

17Fouls17

2Yellow Cards3

1Offsides2