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Guimaraes vs Chaves — Primeira Liga 2018

Guimaraes
Guimaraes
FT
4 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Chaves
Chaves
4/6/2019Primeira LigaPrimeira Liga · Round 28Estádio D. Afonso Henriques

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Guimaraes55%
×Draw25%
Chaves21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guimaraes
1.64
Chaves
0.90

Guimaraes creates 82% more chances

Season form · 136 home / 52 away

creates per match

Guimaraes
1.57
Chaves
0.75

allows per match

Guimaraes
1.04
Chaves
1.71

finishing

Guimaraes+0.00on par
Chaves+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guimaraes ↓

Chaves →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–112%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guimaraes or draw
79%
Guimaraes or Chaves
75%
Draw or Chaves
45%

Winning margin

Guimaraes wins by 2+
30%
Chaves wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Guimaraes 1+ goals
81%
Guimaraes 2+ goals
49%
Guimaraes 3+ goals
23%
Chaves 1+ goals
59%
Chaves 2+ goals
23%
Chaves 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guimaraes (draw refunded)
73%
Chaves (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guimaraes at home — creates 1.57, concedes 1.04 · 136 matches

Chaves away — creates 0.75, concedes 1.71 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guimaraes attack 1.57 + Chaves defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.64

Chaves attack 0.75 + Guimaraes defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Guimaraes scores more
55%
level
25%
Chaves scores more
21%

Guimaraes at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primeira Liga: Guimaraes 4–0 Chaves

Guimaraes beat Chaves 4-0 in Primeira Liga on April 6, 2019.

The match was played at Estádio D. Afonso Henriques in Guimaraes.