Chaves 1–2 Guimaraes: Result & Stats

Chaves

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Guimaraes

3/17/2024

Primeira Liga · Round 26Estádio Municipal Eng. Manuel Branco Teixeira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Chaves36%

×Draw27%

Guimaraes38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

ChavesExpected goals in this matchGuimaraes

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

1.31

Chaves

1.27

Guimaraes

1.31

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 52 home / 136 away

1.21

creates per match

1.07

1.56

allows per match

1.32

creates per match

Chaves

1.21

Guimaraes

1.07

allows per match

Chaves

1.56

Guimaraes

1.32

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Chaves+0.00on par

Guimaraes+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chaves ↓

Guimaraes →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Chaves or draw

62%

Chaves or Guimaraes

73%

Draw or Guimaraes

64%

Winning margin

Chaves wins by 2+

16%

Guimaraes wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Chaves 1+ goals

72%

Chaves 2+ goals

36%

Chaves 3+ goals

14%

Guimaraes 1+ goals

73%

Guimaraes 2+ goals

38%

Guimaraes 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Chaves (draw refunded)

49%

Guimaraes (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chaves at home — creates 1.21, concedes 1.56 · 52 matches

Guimaraes away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.32 · 136 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chaves attack 1.21 + Guimaraes defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guimaraes attack 1.07 + Chaves defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.31

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Chaves scores more

36%

level

27%

Guimaraes scores more

38%

Guimaraes at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guimaraes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff