Güímar 2–3 Gran Tarajal: Result & Stats

Güímar

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 0

Gran Tarajal

10/13/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 8Estadio de Tasagaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Güímar44%

×Draw25%

Gran Tarajal32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GüímarExpected goals in this matchGran Tarajal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.32

Güímar

1.59

Gran Tarajal

1.32

Güímar creates 20% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 75 away

1.43

creates per match

0.97

1.68

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Güímar

1.43

Gran Tarajal

0.97

allows per match

Güímar

1.68

Gran Tarajal

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Güímar+0.00on par

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güímar ↓

Gran Tarajal →

0–05%

0–17%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–09%

1–111%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Güímar or draw

68%

Güímar or Gran Tarajal

75%

Draw or Gran Tarajal

56%

Winning margin

Güímar wins by 2+

22%

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Güímar 1+ goals

80%

Güímar 2+ goals

47%

Güímar 3+ goals

21%

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals

73%

Gran Tarajal 2+ goals

38%

Gran Tarajal 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Güímar (draw refunded)

58%

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Güímar at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Güímar attack 1.43 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Güímar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Güímar scores more

44%

level

25%

Gran Tarajal scores more

32%

Güímar at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Güímar will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff