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Gran Tarajal vs Güímar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Gran Tarajal
Gran Tarajal
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Güímar
Güímar
3/1/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 27Estadio Municipal De Gran Tarajal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Gran Tarajal60%
×Draw23%
Güímar18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gran Tarajal
1.81
Güímar
0.86

Gran Tarajal creates 110% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 28 away

creates per match

Gran Tarajal
1.34
Güímar
0.68

allows per match

Gran Tarajal
1.05
Güímar
2.29

finishing

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par
Güímar+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Tarajal ↓

Güímar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Gran Tarajal or draw
82%
Gran Tarajal or Güímar
77%
Draw or Güímar
40%

Winning margin

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+
34%
Güímar wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals
84%
Gran Tarajal 2+ goals
54%
Gran Tarajal 3+ goals
27%
Güímar 1+ goals
58%
Güímar 2+ goals
21%
Güímar 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)
77%
Güímar (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gran Tarajal at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.05 · 73 matches

Güímar away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gran Tarajal attack 1.34 + Güímar defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 1.81

Güímar attack 0.68 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Gran Tarajal scores more
60%
level
23%
Güímar scores more
18%

Gran Tarajal at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Gran Tarajal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Gran Tarajal vs Güímar

Gran Tarajal and Güímar drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 1, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal De Gran Tarajal in Gran Tarajal.