Güímar 3–0 Atlético Paso: Result & Stats

Güímar

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Atlético Paso

12/11/2019

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Estadio de Tasagaya

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Güímar32%

×Draw26%

Atlético Paso41%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GüímarExpected goals in this matchAtlético Paso

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

1.40

Güímar

1.21

Atlético Paso

1.40

Atlético Paso creates 16% more chances

Season form · 28 home / 59 away

1.43

creates per match

1.12

1.68

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Güímar

1.43

Atlético Paso

1.12

allows per match

Güímar

1.68

Atlético Paso

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Güímar+0.00on par

Atlético Paso+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Güímar ↓

Atlético Paso →

0–07%

0–110%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Güímar or draw

59%

Güímar or Atlético Paso

74%

Draw or Atlético Paso

68%

Winning margin

Güímar wins by 2+

14%

Atlético Paso wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Güímar 1+ goals

70%

Güímar 2+ goals

34%

Güímar 3+ goals

12%

Atlético Paso 1+ goals

75%

Atlético Paso 2+ goals

41%

Atlético Paso 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Güímar (draw refunded)

44%

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Güímar at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.68 · 28 matches

Atlético Paso away — creates 1.12, concedes 0.98 · 59 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Güímar attack 1.43 + Atlético Paso defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 1.21

Atlético Paso attack 1.12 + Güímar defence 1.68 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 41%?"

Güímar scores more

32%

level

26%

Atlético Paso scores more

41%

Atlético Paso at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff