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Atlético Paso vs Güímar — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Atlético Paso
Atlético Paso
CANC
00:00
Güímar
Güímar
4/26/2020Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 35Campo Municipal de El Paso

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 28+ matches

Atlético Paso71%
×Draw19%
Güímar11%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Atlético Paso
2.13
Güímar
0.69

Atlético Paso creates 209% more chances

Season form · 60 home / 28 away

creates per match

Atlético Paso
1.98
Güímar
0.68

allows per match

Atlético Paso
0.70
Güímar
2.29

finishing

Atlético Paso+0.00on par
Güímar+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Paso ↓

Güímar →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–19%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–14%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (14%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Atlético Paso or draw
89%
Atlético Paso or Güímar
81%
Draw or Güímar
29%

Winning margin

Atlético Paso wins by 2+
46%
Güímar wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Atlético Paso 1+ goals
88%
Atlético Paso 2+ goals
63%
Atlético Paso 3+ goals
35%
Güímar 1+ goals
50%
Güímar 2+ goals
15%
Güímar 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Atlético Paso (draw refunded)
87%
Güímar (draw refunded)
13%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Paso at home — creates 1.98, concedes 0.70 · 60 matches

Güímar away — creates 0.68, concedes 2.29 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Paso attack 1.98 + Güímar defence 2.29 → ÷2 → 2.13

Güímar attack 0.68 + Atlético Paso defence 0.70 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Atlético Paso scores more
71%
level
19%
Güímar scores more
11%

Atlético Paso at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Atlético Paso will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Atlético Paso face Güímar (Tercera División RFEF - Group 12)

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 returns with Atlético Paso hosting Güímar. Match starts April 26, 2020. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Atlético Paso host Güímar at Campo Municipal de El Paso.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.