Guillermo Brown 3–1 Ferro Carril Oeste

Guillermo Brown

FT

3 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Ferro Carril Oeste

5/16/2021

Primera Nacional · Round 10Estadio Raúl Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Guillermo Brown38%

×Draw30%

Ferro Carril Oeste32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guillermo BrownExpected goals in this matchFerro Carril Oeste

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.11

0.98

Guillermo Brown

1.11

Ferro Carril Oeste

0.98

Guillermo Brown creates 13% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 132 away

1.00

creates per match

1.08

0.88

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Guillermo Brown

1.00

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.08

allows per match

Guillermo Brown

0.88

Ferro Carril Oeste

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No58
Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Ferro Carril Oeste →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw

68%

Guillermo Brown or Ferro Carril Oeste

70%

Draw or Ferro Carril Oeste

62%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+

16%

Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals

67%

Guillermo Brown 2+ goals

30%

Guillermo Brown 3+ goals

10%

Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals

62%

Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals

26%

Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)

55%

Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

28%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 100 matches

Ferro Carril Oeste away — creates 1.08, concedes 1.23 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.00 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.11

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.08 + Guillermo Brown defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more

38%

level

30%

Ferro Carril Oeste scores more

32%

Guillermo Brown at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Guillermo Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff