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Ferro Carril Oeste vs Guillermo Brown — Primera Nacional 2026

Ferro Carril Oeste
Ferro Carril Oeste
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Guillermo Brown
Guillermo Brown
3/9/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 6Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Ferro Carril Oeste49%
×Draw29%
Guillermo Brown22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ferro Carril Oeste
1.27
Guillermo Brown
0.74

Ferro Carril Oeste creates 72% more chances

Season form · 127 home / 99 away

creates per match

Ferro Carril Oeste
1.25
Guillermo Brown
0.69

allows per match

Ferro Carril Oeste
0.80
Guillermo Brown
1.28

finishing

Ferro Carril Oeste+0.00on par
Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ferro Carril Oeste ↓

Guillermo Brown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Ferro Carril Oeste or draw
78%
Ferro Carril Oeste or Guillermo Brown
71%
Draw or Guillermo Brown
51%

Winning margin

Ferro Carril Oeste wins by 2+
23%
Guillermo Brown wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Ferro Carril Oeste 1+ goals
72%
Ferro Carril Oeste 2+ goals
36%
Ferro Carril Oeste 3+ goals
14%
Guillermo Brown 1+ goals
52%
Guillermo Brown 2+ goals
17%
Guillermo Brown 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Ferro Carril Oeste (draw refunded)
69%
Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ferro Carril Oeste at home — creates 1.25, concedes 0.80 · 127 matches

Guillermo Brown away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.28 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ferro Carril Oeste attack 1.25 + Guillermo Brown defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guillermo Brown attack 0.69 + Ferro Carril Oeste defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ferro Carril Oeste scores more
49%
level
29%
Guillermo Brown scores more
22%

Ferro Carril Oeste at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Ferro Carril Oeste will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Ferro Carril Oeste vs Guillermo Brown

Guillermo Brown beat Ferro Carril Oeste 2-1 in Primera Nacional on March 9, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Arquitecto Ricardo Etcheverry in Capital Federal, Ciudad de Buenos Aires.