Guillermo Brown 1–1 Deportivo Maipu: Result & Stats

Guillermo Brown

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Maipu

3/3/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 5Estadio Raúl Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 100+ matches

Guillermo Brown39%

×Draw31%

Deportivo Maipu30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guillermo BrownExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Maipu

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.09

0.91

Guillermo Brown

1.09

Deportivo Maipu

0.91

Guillermo Brown creates 20% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 100 away

1.00

creates per match

0.94

0.88

allows per match

1.18

creates per match

Guillermo Brown

1.00

Deportivo Maipu

0.94

allows per match

Guillermo Brown

0.88

Deportivo Maipu

1.18

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No60
Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Deportivo Maipu →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–112%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–015%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw

70%

Guillermo Brown or Deportivo Maipu

69%

Draw or Deportivo Maipu

61%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+

16%

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals

66%

Guillermo Brown 2+ goals

30%

Guillermo Brown 3+ goals

10%

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals

60%

Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals

23%

Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)

57%

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 100 matches

Deportivo Maipu away — creates 0.94, concedes 1.18 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.00 + Deportivo Maipu defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.09

Deportivo Maipu attack 0.94 + Guillermo Brown defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more

39%

level

31%

Deportivo Maipu scores more

30%

Guillermo Brown at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Guillermo Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff