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Deportivo Maipu vs Guillermo Brown — Primera Nacional 2026

Deportivo Maipu
Deportivo Maipu
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guillermo Brown
Guillermo Brown
7/21/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 24Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 99+ matches

Deportivo Maipu47%
×Draw30%
Guillermo Brown23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Maipu
1.23
Guillermo Brown
0.77

Deportivo Maipu creates 60% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 99 away

creates per match

Deportivo Maipu
1.19
Guillermo Brown
0.69

allows per match

Deportivo Maipu
0.86
Guillermo Brown
1.28

finishing

Deportivo Maipu+0.00on par
Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

62%No
  • No62
  • Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Maipu ↓

Guillermo Brown →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–110%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Deportivo Maipu or draw
77%
Deportivo Maipu or Guillermo Brown
70%
Draw or Guillermo Brown
53%

Winning margin

Deportivo Maipu wins by 2+
21%
Guillermo Brown wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Deportivo Maipu 1+ goals
71%
Deportivo Maipu 2+ goals
35%
Deportivo Maipu 3+ goals
13%
Guillermo Brown 1+ goals
54%
Guillermo Brown 2+ goals
18%
Guillermo Brown 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Maipu (draw refunded)
67%
Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)
33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Maipu at home — creates 1.19, concedes 0.86 · 102 matches

Guillermo Brown away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.28 · 99 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Maipu attack 1.19 + Guillermo Brown defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.23

Guillermo Brown attack 0.69 + Deportivo Maipu defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Deportivo Maipu scores more
47%
level
30%
Guillermo Brown scores more
23%

Deportivo Maipu at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Deportivo Maipu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Maipu vs Guillermo Brown

Deportivo Maipu beat Guillermo Brown 1-0 in Primera Nacional on July 21, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Omar Higinio Sperdutti in Maipú, Provincia de Mendoza.