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Guillermo Brown vs Club Atlético Güemes — Primera Nacional 2026

Guillermo Brown
Guillermo Brown
FT
1 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Club Atlético Güemes
Club Atlético Güemes
2/18/2024Primera NacionalPrimera Nacional · Round 3Estadio Raúl Conti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Guillermo Brown41%
×Draw31%
Club Atlético Güemes28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guillermo Brown
1.11
Club Atlético Güemes
0.86

Guillermo Brown creates 29% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 98 away

creates per match

Guillermo Brown
1.00
Club Atlético Güemes
0.85

allows per match

Guillermo Brown
0.88
Club Atlético Güemes
1.22

finishing

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par
Club Atlético Güemes+0.00on par

Total goals

68%Under
  • Under68
  • Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guillermo Brown ↓

Club Atlético Güemes →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
59%41%2.5
32%68%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Guillermo Brown or draw
72%
Guillermo Brown or Club Atlético Güemes
69%
Draw or Club Atlético Güemes
59%

Winning margin

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+
17%
Club Atlético Güemes wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals
67%
Guillermo Brown 2+ goals
30%
Guillermo Brown 3+ goals
10%
Club Atlético Güemes 1+ goals
58%
Club Atlético Güemes 2+ goals
21%
Club Atlético Güemes 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)
59%
Club Atlético Güemes (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guillermo Brown at home — creates 1.00, concedes 0.88 · 100 matches

Club Atlético Güemes away — creates 0.85, concedes 1.22 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guillermo Brown attack 1.00 + Club Atlético Güemes defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.11

Club Atlético Güemes attack 0.85 + Guillermo Brown defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.86

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guillermo Brown scores more
41%
level
31%
Club Atlético Güemes scores more
28%

Guillermo Brown at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guillermo Brown will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera Nacional: Guillermo Brown 1–0 Club Atlético Güemes

Guillermo Brown beat Club Atlético Güemes 1-0 in Primera Nacional on February 18, 2024.

The match was played at Estadio Raúl Conti in Puerto Madryn, Provincia de Chubut.