Club Atlético Güemes 1–1 Guillermo Brown

Club Atlético Güemes

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Guillermo Brown

7/7/2024

Primera Nacional · Round 22Estadio Arturo Jiya Miranda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 98+ matches

Club Atlético Güemes45%

×Draw31%

Guillermo Brown24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Club Atlético GüemesExpected goals in this matchGuillermo Brown

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.14

0.76

Club Atlético Güemes

1.14

Guillermo Brown

0.76

Club Atlético Güemes creates 50% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 98 away

0.98

creates per match

0.69

0.83

allows per match

1.30

creates per match

Club Atlético Güemes

0.98

Guillermo Brown

0.69

allows per match

Club Atlético Güemes

0.83

Guillermo Brown

1.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Club Atlético Güemes+0.00on par

Guillermo Brown+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No64
Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Club Atlético Güemes ↓

Guillermo Brown →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Club Atlético Güemes or draw

76%

Club Atlético Güemes or Guillermo Brown

69%

Draw or Guillermo Brown

55%

Winning margin

Club Atlético Güemes wins by 2+

19%

Guillermo Brown wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Club Atlético Güemes 1+ goals

68%

Club Atlético Güemes 2+ goals

32%

Club Atlético Güemes 3+ goals

11%

Guillermo Brown 1+ goals

53%

Guillermo Brown 2+ goals

18%

Guillermo Brown 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Club Atlético Güemes (draw refunded)

65%

Guillermo Brown (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Club Atlético Güemes at home — creates 0.98, concedes 0.83 · 100 matches

Guillermo Brown away — creates 0.69, concedes 1.30 · 98 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Club Atlético Güemes attack 0.98 + Guillermo Brown defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.14

Guillermo Brown attack 0.69 + Club Atlético Güemes defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Club Atlético Güemes scores more

45%

level

31%

Guillermo Brown scores more

24%

Club Atlético Güemes at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Club Atlético Güemes will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff