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Guijuelo vs Cultural Leonesa — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
2/23/2020Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 26Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guijuelo47%
×Draw27%
Cultural Leonesa26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.38
Cultural Leonesa
0.95

Guijuelo creates 45% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 15 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
1.43
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.57
Cultural Leonesa
1.33

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Cultural Leonesa →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
74%
Guijuelo or Cultural Leonesa
73%
Draw or Cultural Leonesa
53%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
22%
Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
75%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
40%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
16%
Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
61%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
25%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
64%
Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 1.43, concedes 0.57 · 14 matches

Cultural Leonesa away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Cultural Leonesa defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.38

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.33 + Guijuelo defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Guijuelo scores more
47%
level
27%
Cultural Leonesa scores more
26%

Guijuelo at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Primera División RFEF - Group 2: Guijuelo 3–1 Cultural Leonesa

Guijuelo beat Cultural Leonesa 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on February 23, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Guijuelo in Guijuelo.