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Cultural Leonesa vs Guijuelo — Primera División RFEF - Group 2 2019

Cultural Leonesa
Cultural Leonesa
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Guijuelo
Guijuelo
10/5/2019Primera División RFEF - Group 2Primera División RFEF - Group 2 · Group 2 - 7Estadio Municipal Reino de León

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Cultural Leonesa60%
×Draw25%
Guijuelo15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Cultural Leonesa
1.60
Guijuelo
0.67

Cultural Leonesa creates 139% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 14 away

creates per match

Cultural Leonesa
1.92
Guijuelo
0.71

allows per match

Cultural Leonesa
0.62
Guijuelo
1.29

finishing

Cultural Leonesa+0.00on par
Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Under
  • Under60
  • Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Cultural Leonesa ↓

Guijuelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
66%34%2.5
40%60%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Cultural Leonesa or draw
85%
Cultural Leonesa or Guijuelo
75%
Draw or Guijuelo
40%

Winning margin

Cultural Leonesa wins by 2+
33%
Guijuelo wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Cultural Leonesa 1+ goals
80%
Cultural Leonesa 2+ goals
47%
Cultural Leonesa 3+ goals
22%
Guijuelo 1+ goals
49%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
15%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Cultural Leonesa (draw refunded)
79%
Guijuelo (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Cultural Leonesa at home — creates 1.92, concedes 0.62 · 13 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Cultural Leonesa attack 1.92 + Guijuelo defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.60

Guijuelo attack 0.71 + Cultural Leonesa defence 0.62 → ÷2 → 0.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Cultural Leonesa scores more
60%
level
25%
Guijuelo scores more
15%

Cultural Leonesa at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Cultural Leonesa will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Cultural Leonesa 3 – 1 Guijuelo

Cultural Leonesa beat Guijuelo 3-1 in Primera División RFEF - Group 2 on October 5, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Reino de León in León.