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Guijuelo vs Becerril Campos — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Becerril Campos
Becerril Campos
2/22/2026Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 23Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guijuelo65%
×Draw22%
Becerril Campos13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.83
Becerril Campos
0.69

Guijuelo creates 165% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 97 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
2.09
Becerril Campos
1.02

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.35
Becerril Campos
1.58

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Becerril Campos →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (15%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
87%
Guijuelo or Becerril Campos
78%
Draw or Becerril Campos
35%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
38%
Becerril Campos wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
84%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
54%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
28%
Becerril Campos 1+ goals
50%
Becerril Campos 2+ goals
15%
Becerril Campos 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
83%
Becerril Campos (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.35 · 34 matches

Becerril Campos away — creates 1.02, concedes 1.58 · 97 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 2.09 + Becerril Campos defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.83

Becerril Campos attack 1.02 + Guijuelo defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Guijuelo scores more
65%
level
22%
Becerril Campos scores more
13%

Guijuelo at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guijuelo vs Becerril Campos

Guijuelo beat Becerril Campos 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on February 22, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos in Guijuelo.