Becerril Campos 1–3 Guijuelo: Result & Stats

Becerril Campos

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 3

Guijuelo

10/12/2025

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 6Estadio Mariano Haro

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Becerril Campos28%

×Draw28%

Guijuelo44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Becerril CamposExpected goals in this matchGuijuelo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.02

1.34

Becerril Campos

1.02

Guijuelo

1.34

Guijuelo creates 31% more chances

Season form · 97 home / 35 away

1.11

creates per match

1.43

1.26

allows per match

0.94

creates per match

Becerril Campos

1.11

Guijuelo

1.43

allows per match

Becerril Campos

1.26

Guijuelo

0.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Becerril Campos+0.00on par

Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No53
Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Becerril Campos ↓

Guijuelo →

0–09%

0–113%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1–010%

1–113%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2–05%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3–02%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Becerril Campos or draw

56%

Becerril Campos or Guijuelo

72%

Draw or Guijuelo

72%

Winning margin

Becerril Campos wins by 2+

11%

Guijuelo wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Becerril Campos 1+ goals

64%

Becerril Campos 2+ goals

27%

Becerril Campos 3+ goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals

74%

Guijuelo 2+ goals

39%

Guijuelo 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Becerril Campos (draw refunded)

39%

Guijuelo (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Becerril Campos at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.26 · 97 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Becerril Campos attack 1.11 + Guijuelo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.02

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Becerril Campos defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 44%?"

Becerril Campos scores more

28%

level

28%

Guijuelo scores more

44%

Guijuelo at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff