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Guijuelo vs Almazán — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Guijuelo
Guijuelo
FT
3 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Almazán
Almazán
1/29/2022Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 21Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guijuelo63%
×Draw23%
Almazán14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guijuelo
1.71
Almazán
0.66

Guijuelo creates 159% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 113 away

creates per match

Guijuelo
2.09
Almazán
0.97

allows per match

Guijuelo
0.35
Almazán
1.34

finishing

Guijuelo+0.00on par
Almazán+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guijuelo ↓

Almazán →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–16%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–014%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Guijuelo or draw
86%
Guijuelo or Almazán
77%
Draw or Almazán
37%

Winning margin

Guijuelo wins by 2+
36%
Almazán wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Guijuelo 1+ goals
82%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
51%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
24%
Almazán 1+ goals
48%
Almazán 2+ goals
14%
Almazán 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guijuelo (draw refunded)
82%
Almazán (draw refunded)
18%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guijuelo at home — creates 2.09, concedes 0.35 · 34 matches

Almazán away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.34 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guijuelo attack 2.09 + Almazán defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.71

Almazán attack 0.97 + Guijuelo defence 0.35 → ÷2 → 0.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Guijuelo scores more
63%
level
23%
Almazán scores more
14%

Guijuelo at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Guijuelo will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Tercera División RFEF - Group 8: Guijuelo 3–0 Almazán

Guijuelo beat Almazán 3-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on January 29, 2022.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal Luis Ramos in Guijuelo.