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Almazán vs Guijuelo — Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 2019

Almazán
Almazán
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Guijuelo
Guijuelo
9/26/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 8Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 · Group 8 - 4Estadio Municipal de la Arboleda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Almazán37%
×Draw27%
Guijuelo36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Almazán
1.27
Guijuelo
1.23

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 114 home / 35 away

creates per match

Almazán
1.61
Guijuelo
1.43

allows per match

Almazán
1.02
Guijuelo
0.94

finishing

Almazán+0.00on par
Guijuelo+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Almazán ↓

Guijuelo →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
46%54%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Almazán or draw
64%
Almazán or Guijuelo
73%
Draw or Guijuelo
63%

Winning margin

Almazán wins by 2+
16%
Guijuelo wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Almazán 1+ goals
72%
Almazán 2+ goals
36%
Almazán 3+ goals
14%
Guijuelo 1+ goals
71%
Guijuelo 2+ goals
35%
Guijuelo 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Almazán (draw refunded)
51%
Guijuelo (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Almazán at home — creates 1.61, concedes 1.02 · 114 matches

Guijuelo away — creates 1.43, concedes 0.94 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Almazán attack 1.61 + Guijuelo defence 0.94 → ÷2 → 1.27

Guijuelo attack 1.43 + Almazán defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Almazán scores more
37%
level
27%
Guijuelo scores more
36%

Almazán at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Almazán will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Almazán vs Guijuelo

Almazán and Guijuelo drew 2-2 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on September 26, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de la Arboleda in Almazán.