Guía 0–0 Gran Tarajal: Result & Stats

Guía

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Gran Tarajal

4/18/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 18Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía48%

×Draw25%

Gran Tarajal27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuíaExpected goals in this matchGran Tarajal

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.59

1.13

Guía

1.59

Gran Tarajal

1.13

Guía creates 41% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 75 away

1.43

creates per match

0.97

1.29

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Guía

1.43

Gran Tarajal

0.97

allows per match

Guía

1.29

Gran Tarajal

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guía+0.00on par

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Total goals

Over51
Under49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

Gran Tarajal →

0–07%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–40%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

75%25%2.5

51%49%3.5

29%71%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Guía or draw

73%

Guía or Gran Tarajal

75%

Draw or Gran Tarajal

52%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+

25%

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+

11%

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals

80%

Guía 2+ goals

47%

Guía 3+ goals

21%

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals

68%

Gran Tarajal 2+ goals

31%

Gran Tarajal 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)

64%

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Gran Tarajal away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.75 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.59

Gran Tarajal attack 0.97 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 48%?"

Guía scores more

48%

level

25%

Gran Tarajal scores more

27%

Guía at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Guía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

54'

José Roberto← Kilian

54'

Oscar← F. Bellingi

67'

Cristian← Delgado

72'

Kilian← Luisja

76'

Sergio← G. Cedrez

86'

Rubén Mendoza← David Flaco

Guía

Gran

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Iván Mendoza

67'▲Cristian←▼Delgado

72'▲Kilian←▼Luisja

86'▲Rubén Mendoza←▼David Flaco

Guía substitutes

CristianKilianMendoza

Manager: Maxi Barrera

54'▲José Roberto←▼Kilian

54'▲Oscar←▼F. Bellingi

76'▲Sergio←▼G. Cedrez

Gran Tarajal substitutes

RobertoOscarSergio