Gran Tarajal 2–0 Guía: Result & Stats

Gran Tarajal

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Guía

Figueroa 79'

Héctor Figueroa 40'

2/28/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 9Estadio Municipal De Gran Tarajal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Gran Tarajal53%

×Draw24%

Guía24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Gran TarajalExpected goals in this matchGuía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.06

Gran Tarajal

1.71

Guía

1.06

Gran Tarajal creates 61% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 14 away

1.34

creates per match

1.07

1.05

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Gran Tarajal

1.34

Guía

1.07

allows per match

Gran Tarajal

1.05

Guía

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Gran Tarajal+0.00on par

Guía+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gran Tarajal ↓

Guía →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Gran Tarajal or draw

76%

Gran Tarajal or Guía

76%

Draw or Guía

47%

Winning margin

Gran Tarajal wins by 2+

29%

Guía wins by 2+

Team goals

Gran Tarajal 1+ goals

82%

Gran Tarajal 2+ goals

51%

Gran Tarajal 3+ goals

24%

Guía 1+ goals

65%

Guía 2+ goals

29%

Guía 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Gran Tarajal (draw refunded)

69%

Guía (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Gran Tarajal at home — creates 1.34, concedes 1.05 · 73 matches

Guía away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Gran Tarajal attack 1.34 + Guía defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.71

Guía attack 1.07 + Gran Tarajal defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Gran Tarajal scores more

53%

level

24%

Guía scores more

24%

Gran Tarajal at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Gran Tarajal will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

40'

Héctor Figueroa

46'

Aythami← J. Flores

60'

Omar Díaz← Rivero

65'

Oscar← Ancor

69'

B. Ibarguen← Javi Mejías

69'

David Flaco← Delgado

69'

Melo← Cristian

79'

Figueroa

85'

Guayre← Héctor Figueroa

85'

Kilian← Figueroa

90'

Elías← Caliche

Gran

Guía

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

Figueroa

Castaño

Pérez

⚽

▼

Figueroa

Cedrez

▼

Caliche

Manager: Maxi Barrera

65'▲Oscar←▼Ancor

85'▲Guayre←▼Héctor Figueroa

85'▲Kilian←▼Figueroa

90'▲Elías←▼Caliche

Gran Tarajal substitutes

OscarGuayreKilianElías

Manager: Moisés Díaz

46'▲Aythami←▼J. Flores

60'▲Omar Díaz←▼Rivero

69'▲B. Ibarguen←▼Javi Mejías

69'▲David Flaco←▼Delgado

69'▲Melo←▼Cristian

Guía substitutes

AythamiDíazIbarguenFlacoMelo