Guía 1–0 Atlético Tacoronte: Result & Stats

Guía

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Tacoronte

Roberto 42'

5/12/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2nd Phase - 3Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía52%

×Draw24%

Atlético Tacoronte24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuíaExpected goals in this matchAtlético Tacoronte

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

1.07

Guía

1.69

Atlético Tacoronte

1.07

Guía creates 58% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 28 away

1.43

creates per match

0.86

1.29

allows per match

1.96

creates per match

Guía

1.43

Atlético Tacoronte

0.86

allows per match

Guía

1.29

Atlético Tacoronte

1.96

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guía+0.00on par

Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

Atlético Tacoronte →

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1–011%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3–05%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Guía or draw

76%

Guía or Atlético Tacoronte

76%

Draw or Atlético Tacoronte

48%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+

28%

Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals

82%

Guía 2+ goals

50%

Guía 3+ goals

24%

Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals

66%

Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals

29%

Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)

68%

Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

42%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Atlético Tacoronte away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.96 · 28 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.96 → ÷2 → 1.69

Atlético Tacoronte attack 0.86 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 52%?"

Guía scores more

52%

level

24%

Atlético Tacoronte scores more

24%

Guía at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Guía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

23'

Cristian Álvarez← Cabrera

42'

Roberto

52'

Delgado← Kilian

72'

Melo← Luisja

72'

Aarón← Ale Medina

89'

B. Ibarguen← Maceo

Guía

Atlético

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Iván Mendoza

52'▲Delgado←▼Kilian

72'▲Melo←▼Luisja

89'▲B. Ibarguen←▼Maceo

Guía substitutes

DelgadoMeloIbarguen

Manager: Rayco García

23'▲Cristian Álvarez←▼Cabrera

72'▲Aarón←▼Ale Medina

Atlético Tacoronte substitutes

ÁlvarezAarón

Match Recap: Guía vs Atlético Tacoronte

Guía beat Atlético Tacoronte 1-0 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on May 12, 2021.

Goals: Roberto (42').

The match was played at Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas.

Guía vs Atlético Tacoronte — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Guía vs Atlético Tacoronte