Atlético Tacoronte 4–1 Guía: Result & Stats

Atlético Tacoronte

4 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Guía

Zeben 80', 67', 42'

Adán Jesús 72'

Jesús Farías 71'

6/13/2021

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 2nd Phase - 8Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Atlético Tacoronte53%

×Draw23%

Guía24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético TacoronteExpected goals in this matchGuía

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.77

1.11

Atlético Tacoronte

1.77

Guía

1.11

Atlético Tacoronte creates 59% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 14 away

1.48

creates per match

1.07

1.15

allows per match

2.07

creates per match

Atlético Tacoronte

1.48

Guía

1.07

allows per match

Atlético Tacoronte

1.15

Guía

2.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Tacoronte+0.00on par

Guía+0.00on par

Total goals

Over55
Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Tacoronte ↓

Guía →

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1–010%

1–111%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2–09%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–05%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–02%

4–13%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

78%22%2.5

55%45%3.5

32%68%4.5

16%84%

Double chance

Atlético Tacoronte or draw

76%

Atlético Tacoronte or Guía

77%

Draw or Guía

47%

Winning margin

Atlético Tacoronte wins by 2+

29%

Guía wins by 2+

Team goals

Atlético Tacoronte 1+ goals

83%

Atlético Tacoronte 2+ goals

53%

Atlético Tacoronte 3+ goals

26%

Guía 1+ goals

67%

Guía 2+ goals

30%

Guía 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Atlético Tacoronte (draw refunded)

69%

Guía (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Atlético Tacoronte at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.15 · 27 matches

Guía away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Tacoronte attack 1.48 + Guía defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.77

Guía attack 1.07 + Atlético Tacoronte defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Tacoronte scores more

53%

level

23%

Guía scores more

24%

Atlético Tacoronte at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Tacoronte will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

61'

61'

67'

68'

68'

Rubén Mendoza← Kilian

69'

71'

72'

80'

81'

Aythami← Alexander Martel

82'

Yosimar← Zeben

85'

Cristian Casanova← Rober

Atlético

Guía

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

⚽3

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Rayco García

69'▲David Quirós←▼Isma

82'▲Yosimar←▼Zeben

85'▲Cristian Casanova←▼Rober

Atlético Tacoronte substitutes

QuirósYosimarCasanova

Manager: Iván Mendoza

61'▲David Flaco←▼Roberto

61'▲Rivero←▼B. Ibarguen

68'▲Melo←▼Javi Mejías

68'▲Rubén Mendoza←▼Kilian

81'▲Aythami←▼Alexander Martel

Guía substitutes

FlacoRiveroMeloMendozaAythami

Match Recap: Atlético Tacoronte vs Guía

Atlético Tacoronte beat Guía 4-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on June 13, 2021.

Goals: Zeben (42', 67', 80'), Jesús Farías (71'), Adán Jesús (72').

The match was played at Barranco Las Lajas Campo De Futbol in Tacoronte.

Atlético Tacoronte vs Guía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Atlético Tacoronte vs Guía