Guía 1–1 Arucas: Result & Stats

Guía

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Arucas

Joaquín 66' (pen)

Abraham Noé 52'

12/4/2020

Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 7Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Guía43%

×Draw26%

Arucas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuíaExpected goals in this matchArucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.18

Guía

1.44

Arucas

1.18

Guía creates 22% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 96 away

1.43

creates per match

1.06

1.29

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Guía

1.43

Arucas

1.06

allows per match

Guía

1.29

Arucas

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guía+0.00on par

Arucas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under51
Over49

Close call

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guía ↓

Arucas →

0–07%

0–19%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3–04%

3–14%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

49%51%3.5

27%73%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Guía or draw

69%

Guía or Arucas

74%

Draw or Arucas

57%

Winning margin

Guía wins by 2+

21%

Arucas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guía 1+ goals

76%

Guía 2+ goals

42%

Guía 3+ goals

18%

Arucas 1+ goals

69%

Arucas 2+ goals

33%

Arucas 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Guía (draw refunded)

58%

Arucas (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

Recent form of each side

Guía at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.29 · 14 matches

Arucas away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.46 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

Expected goals for this match

Guía attack 1.43 + Arucas defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Arucas attack 1.06 + Guía defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.18

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

The answer to "why 43%?"

Guía scores more

43%

level

26%

Arucas scores more

31%

Guía at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Guía will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

52'

Abraham Noé

54'

Jurgen← Maceo

54'

B. Ibarguen← David

54'

Kilian← Iván Morris

66'

JoaquínPenalty

69'

Javi Mejías← Melo

70'

Carmelo← Jonay Futre

79'

Chiqui← Romario

80'

Cristian← Alexander Martel

87'

Joel Nuez González← Iván

Guía

Arucas

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

Manager: Moisés Díaz

54'▲Jurgen←▼Maceo

54'▲B. Ibarguen←▼David

54'▲Kilian←▼Iván Morris

69'▲Javi Mejías←▼Melo

80'▲Cristian←▼Alexander Martel

Guía substitutes

JurgenIbarguenKilianMejíasCristian

Manager: Juan Germán

70'▲Carmelo←▼Jonay Futre

79'▲Chiqui←▼Romario

87'▲Joel Nuez González←▼Iván

Arucas substitutes

CarmeloChiquiGonzález

Match Recap: Guía vs Arucas

Guía and Arucas drew 1-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on December 4, 2020.

Goals: Abraham Noé (52'), Joaquín (66' pen).

The match was played at Estadio Octavio Estevez de Guia de Gran Canaria in Las Palmas.

Guía vs Arucas — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Guía vs Arucas