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Arucas vs Guía — Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 2019

Arucas
Arucas
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guía
Guía
3/7/2021Tercera División RFEF - Group 12Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 · Group 12 - 16Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Arucas54%
×Draw23%
Guía22%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arucas
1.77
Guía
1.04

Arucas creates 70% more chances

Season form · 96 home / 14 away

creates per match

Arucas
1.48
Guía
1.07

allows per match

Arucas
1.01
Guía
2.07

finishing

Arucas+0.00on par
Guía+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arucas ↓

Guía →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–111%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
31%69%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Arucas or draw
78%
Arucas or Guía
77%
Draw or Guía
46%

Winning margin

Arucas wins by 2+
30%
Guía wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Arucas 1+ goals
83%
Arucas 2+ goals
53%
Arucas 3+ goals
26%
Guía 1+ goals
65%
Guía 2+ goals
28%
Guía 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Arucas (draw refunded)
71%
Guía (draw refunded)
29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arucas at home — creates 1.48, concedes 1.01 · 96 matches

Guía away — creates 1.07, concedes 2.07 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arucas attack 1.48 + Guía defence 2.07 → ÷2 → 1.77

Guía attack 1.07 + Arucas defence 1.01 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Arucas scores more
54%
level
23%
Guía scores more
22%

Arucas at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Arucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Arucas vs Guía

Arucas beat Guía 2-1 in Tercera División RFEF - Group 12 on March 7, 2021.

The match was played at Complejo Antonio Afonso Moreno in Arucas.