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Guayaquil City FC vs Gualaceo SC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
10/5/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Championship Round - 6

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Guayaquil City FC60%
×Draw25%
Gualaceo SC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.62
Gualaceo SC
0.69

Guayaquil City FC creates 135% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 110 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.89
Gualaceo SC
0.82

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
0.57
Gualaceo SC
1.35

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Gualaceo SC+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Gualaceo SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–17%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–15%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
67%33%2.5
41%59%3.5
20%80%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
84%
Guayaquil City FC or Gualaceo SC
75%
Draw or Gualaceo SC
40%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
33%
Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
80%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
48%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
22%
Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
50%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
15%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
79%
Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Gualaceo SC away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.35 · 110 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.89 + Gualaceo SC defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.62

Gualaceo SC attack 0.82 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
60%
level
25%
Gualaceo SC scores more
16%

Guayaquil City FC at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guayaquil City FC vs Gualaceo SC

Guayaquil City FC beat Gualaceo SC 1-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 5, 2025.