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Gualaceo SC vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Gualaceo SC
Gualaceo SC
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
9/4/2025Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Championship Round - 2Estadio Jorge Andrade

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Gualaceo SC37%
×Draw32%
Guayaquil City FC31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Gualaceo SC
1.00
Guayaquil City FC
0.88

Gualaceo SC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 111 home / 35 away

creates per match

Gualaceo SC
1.17
Guayaquil City FC
0.97

allows per match

Gualaceo SC
0.79
Guayaquil City FC
0.83

finishing

Gualaceo SC+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Gualaceo SC ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–015%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (15%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Gualaceo SC or draw
69%
Gualaceo SC or Guayaquil City FC
68%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
63%

Winning margin

Gualaceo SC wins by 2+
14%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Gualaceo SC 1+ goals
63%
Gualaceo SC 2+ goals
26%
Gualaceo SC 3+ goals
8%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
59%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
22%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Gualaceo SC (draw refunded)
55%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Gualaceo SC at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.79 · 111 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Gualaceo SC attack 1.17 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 1.00

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.97 + Gualaceo SC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Gualaceo SC scores more
37%
level
32%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
31%

Gualaceo SC at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Gualaceo SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Gualaceo SC 2–0 Guayaquil City FC

Gualaceo SC beat Guayaquil City FC 2-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on September 4, 2025.

The match was played at Estadio Jorge Andrade in Azogues.