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Guayaquil City FC vs Fuerza Amarilla — Liga Pro 2018

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
3/10/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 5Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt (Guayaquil)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Guayaquil City FC64%
×Draw21%
Fuerza Amarilla15%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.96
Fuerza Amarilla
0.83

Guayaquil City FC creates 136% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 15 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.24
Fuerza Amarilla
0.60

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.07
Fuerza Amarilla
2.67

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Over
  • Over53
  • Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Fuerza Amarilla →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
53%47%3.5
30%70%4.5
15%85%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
85%
Guayaquil City FC or Fuerza Amarilla
79%
Draw or Fuerza Amarilla
36%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
39%
Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
86%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
58%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
31%
Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
56%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
20%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
81%
Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 95 matches

Fuerza Amarilla away — creates 0.60, concedes 2.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.24 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.67 → ÷2 → 1.96

Fuerza Amarilla attack 0.60 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
64%
level
21%
Fuerza Amarilla scores more
15%

Guayaquil City FC at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Guayaquil City FC 1–1 Fuerza Amarilla

Guayaquil City FC and Fuerza Amarilla drew 1-1 in Liga Pro on March 10, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt (Guayaquil).