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Fuerza Amarilla vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro 2018

Fuerza Amarilla
Fuerza Amarilla
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
8/3/2019Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 20Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Fuerza Amarilla35%
×Draw25%
Guayaquil City FC41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fuerza Amarilla
1.38
Guayaquil City FC
1.52

Guayaquil City FC creates 10% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 96 away

creates per match

Fuerza Amarilla
1.00
Guayaquil City FC
0.77

allows per match

Fuerza Amarilla
2.27
Guayaquil City FC
1.75

finishing

Fuerza Amarilla+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fuerza Amarilla ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
79%21%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Fuerza Amarilla or draw
59%
Fuerza Amarilla or Guayaquil City FC
75%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
65%

Winning margin

Fuerza Amarilla wins by 2+
16%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Fuerza Amarilla 1+ goals
75%
Fuerza Amarilla 2+ goals
40%
Fuerza Amarilla 3+ goals
16%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
78%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
45%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Fuerza Amarilla (draw refunded)
46%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fuerza Amarilla at home — creates 1.00, concedes 2.27 · 15 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.75 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fuerza Amarilla attack 1.00 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.38

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.77 + Fuerza Amarilla defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Fuerza Amarilla scores more
35%
level
25%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
41%

Guayaquil City FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Fuerza Amarilla vs Guayaquil City FC

Guayaquil City FC beat Fuerza Amarilla 1-0 in Liga Pro on August 3, 2019.

The match was played at Estadio 9 de Mayo (Machala).