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Guayaquil City FC vs Chacaritas — Liga Pro Serie B 2024

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
FT
3 – 0
HT: 3 – 0
Chacaritas
Chacaritas
P. Mancilla 40'
A. Naula 14'
E. Mero 9'
8/22/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 25Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Guayaquil City FC71%
×Draw19%
Chacaritas9%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.98
Chacaritas
0.55

Guayaquil City FC creates 260% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 34 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.89
Chacaritas
0.53

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
0.57
Chacaritas
2.06

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Chacaritas+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Under
  • Under54
  • Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Chacaritas →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–14%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–19%
1–22%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–016%
2–19%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–16%
3–22%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
46%54%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
91%
Guayaquil City FC or Chacaritas
81%
Draw or Chacaritas
29%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
45%
Chacaritas wins by 2+
2%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
86%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
59%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
31%
Chacaritas 1+ goals
42%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
11%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
88%
Chacaritas (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.57 · 35 matches

Chacaritas away — creates 0.53, concedes 2.06 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.89 + Chacaritas defence 2.06 → ÷2 → 1.98

Chacaritas attack 0.53 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.57 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
71%
level
19%
Chacaritas scores more
9%

Guayaquil City FC at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'
E. Mero
14'
A. Naula
40'
P. Mancilla

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Guayaquil City FC 3–0 Chacaritas

Guayaquil City FC beat Chacaritas 3-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on August 22, 2024.

Goals: E. Mero (9'), A. Naula (14'), P. Mancilla (40').

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.