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Chacaritas vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro Serie B 2024

Chacaritas
Chacaritas
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
Unknown 67'
10/9/2024Liga Pro Serie BLiga Pro Serie B · Round 33Estadio Bellavista de Ambato

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Chacaritas29%
×Draw29%
Guayaquil City FC42%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chacaritas
0.96
Guayaquil City FC
1.23

Guayaquil City FC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 35 home / 35 away

creates per match

Chacaritas
1.09
Guayaquil City FC
0.97

allows per match

Chacaritas
1.49
Guayaquil City FC
0.83

finishing

Chacaritas+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chacaritas ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–16%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Chacaritas or draw
58%
Chacaritas or Guayaquil City FC
71%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
71%

Winning margin

Chacaritas wins by 2+
10%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Chacaritas 1+ goals
62%
Chacaritas 2+ goals
25%
Chacaritas 3+ goals
7%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
71%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
35%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Chacaritas (draw refunded)
40%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chacaritas at home — creates 1.09, concedes 1.49 · 35 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.83 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chacaritas attack 1.09 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.96

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.97 + Chacaritas defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Chacaritas scores more
29%
level
29%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
42%

Guayaquil City FC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

67'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro Serie B: Chacaritas 0–0 Guayaquil City FC

Chacaritas and Guayaquil City FC drew 0-0 in Liga Pro Serie B on October 9, 2024.

Goals: ? (67').

The match was played at Estadio Bellavista de Ambato in Ambato.