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Guayaquil City FC vs Barcelona SC — Liga Pro 2026

Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
3/15/2026Liga ProLiga Pro · Round 4Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Guayaquil City FC36%
×Draw28%
Barcelona SC36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guayaquil City FC
1.21
Barcelona SC
1.21

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 95 home / 133 away

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.24
Barcelona SC
1.34

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC
1.07
Barcelona SC
1.18

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par
Barcelona SC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Barcelona SC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw
64%
Guayaquil City FC or Barcelona SC
72%
Draw or Barcelona SC
64%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
15%
Barcelona SC wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
70%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
34%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
12%
Barcelona SC 1+ goals
70%
Barcelona SC 2+ goals
34%
Barcelona SC 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
50%
Barcelona SC (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.07 · 95 matches

Barcelona SC away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.18 · 133 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.24 + Barcelona SC defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.21

Barcelona SC attack 1.34 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more
36%
level
28%
Barcelona SC scores more
36%

Guayaquil City FC at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Guayaquil City FC 0–0 Barcelona SC

Guayaquil City FC and Barcelona SC drew 0-0 in Liga Pro on March 15, 2026.

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benitez Betancourt in Guayaquil.