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Barcelona SC vs Guayaquil City FC — Liga Pro 2026

Barcelona SC
Barcelona SC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Guayaquil City FC
Guayaquil City FC
11/26/2023Liga ProLiga Pro · 2nd Round - 14Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 96+ matches

Barcelona SC61%
×Draw23%
Guayaquil City FC16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barcelona SC
1.81
Guayaquil City FC
0.81

Barcelona SC creates 123% more chances

Season form · 133 home / 96 away

creates per match

Barcelona SC
1.87
Guayaquil City FC
0.77

allows per match

Barcelona SC
0.85
Guayaquil City FC
1.75

finishing

Barcelona SC+0.00on par
Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barcelona SC ↓

Guayaquil City FC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–111%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Barcelona SC or draw
84%
Barcelona SC or Guayaquil City FC
77%
Draw or Guayaquil City FC
39%

Winning margin

Barcelona SC wins by 2+
35%
Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Barcelona SC 1+ goals
84%
Barcelona SC 2+ goals
54%
Barcelona SC 3+ goals
27%
Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals
56%
Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals
19%
Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Barcelona SC (draw refunded)
79%
Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)
21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barcelona SC at home — creates 1.87, concedes 0.85 · 133 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.77, concedes 1.75 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barcelona SC attack 1.87 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 1.81

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.77 + Barcelona SC defence 0.85 → ÷2 → 0.81

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Barcelona SC scores more
61%
level
23%
Guayaquil City FC scores more
16%

Barcelona SC at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Barcelona SC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Liga Pro: Barcelona SC 2–1 Guayaquil City FC

Barcelona SC beat Guayaquil City FC 2-1 in Liga Pro on November 26, 2023.

The match was played at Estadio Monumental Banco Pichincha in Guayaquil.