Guayaquil City FC 0–1 Aucas: Result & Stats

Guayaquil City FC

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Aucas

J. Medina 23'

10/1/2023

Liga Pro · 2nd Round - 8Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Guayaquil City FC41%

×Draw27%

Aucas31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guayaquil City FCExpected goals in this matchAucas

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.34

1.13

Guayaquil City FC

1.34

Aucas

1.13

Guayaquil City FC creates 19% more chances

Season form · 95 home / 131 away

1.24

creates per match

1.21

1.05

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.24

Aucas

1.21

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.05

Aucas

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Aucas+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Aucas →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–110%

0–25%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw

69%

Guayaquil City FC or Aucas

73%

Draw or Aucas

59%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

19%

Aucas wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

74%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

39%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

15%

Aucas 1+ goals

68%

Aucas 2+ goals

31%

Aucas 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

57%

Aucas (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.05 · 95 matches

Aucas away — creates 1.21, concedes 1.44 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.24 + Aucas defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.34

Aucas attack 1.21 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more

41%

level

27%

Aucas scores more

31%

Guayaquil City FC at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Player of the match

33

L. Cangá

Aucas · D

7.3

Match Events

23'

J. Medina↳ L. Cangá

29'

Carlos Cuero

32'

Agustín DávilaPenalty confirmed

33'

52'

57'

58'

58'

S. Plaza← A. Preciado

58'

J. Humanante← J. Montaño

61'

William Vargas

65'

J. Ayovi← W. Fernández

65'

R. Otero← J. Quiñónez

75'

Kevin Becerra

78'

L. Romero← A. Garcia

78'

R. Ordóñez← J. Medina

88'

D. Segura← M. Alonso

88'

J. Cifuente← L. Cano

Possession

Shots

Pass accuracy

Statistics

GuayaquilAucas

Overview

64%Possession36%

12Total Shots6

3Corners2

17Fouls9

Shots

12Total Shots6

2On Target3

8Off Target1

2Blocked2

8Inside Box3

4Outside Box3

Passing

64%Possession36%

315Total Passes180

266Accurate Passes122

84%Pass Accuracy68%

Goalkeeping

1Saves2

Discipline

17Fouls9

3Yellow Cards3

3Offsides5