Aucas 1–0 Guayaquil City FC: Result & Stats

Aucas

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Guayaquil City FC

E. Caicedo 0 90+10'

4/28/2023

Liga Pro · 1st Round - 8Estadio Cooprogreso Gonzalo Pozo Ripalda

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 95+ matches

Aucas56%

×Draw24%

Guayaquil City FC20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

AucasExpected goals in this matchGuayaquil City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.69

0.91

Aucas

1.69

Guayaquil City FC

0.91

Aucas creates 86% more chances

Season form · 132 home / 95 away

1.72

creates per match

0.78

1.04

allows per match

1.67

creates per match

Aucas

1.72

Guayaquil City FC

0.78

allows per match

Aucas

1.04

Guayaquil City FC

1.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Aucas+0.00on par

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

No51
Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Aucas ↓

Guayaquil City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Aucas or draw

80%

Aucas or Guayaquil City FC

76%

Draw or Guayaquil City FC

44%

Winning margin

Aucas wins by 2+

31%

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Aucas 1+ goals

82%

Aucas 2+ goals

50%

Aucas 3+ goals

24%

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

60%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

23%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Aucas (draw refunded)

73%

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Aucas at home — creates 1.72, concedes 1.04 · 132 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 0.78, concedes 1.67 · 95 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Aucas attack 1.72 + Guayaquil City FC defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.69

Guayaquil City FC attack 0.78 + Aucas defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 0.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Aucas scores more

56%

level

24%

Guayaquil City FC scores more

20%

Aucas at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Aucas will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

38'

42'

44'

52'

62'

E. Castillo← R. Ordóñez

62'

J. Rezabala← A. Mina

62'

J. Cifuente← M. Rangel

62'

Pedro Perlaza← M. Mejía

67'

Darwin Torres

70'

J. Narváez← Klebinho

70'

S. Ramírez← R. César

70'

F. Vietto← M. Parrales

78'

83'

83'

84'

84'

86'

86'

89'

89'

C. Medina← W. Fernández

90+9'

Jean Humanante

90+10'

E. Caicedo 0↳ J. Montero

Possession

Shots

Statistics

AucasGuayaquil

Overview

48%Possession52%

21Total Shots8

11Corners1

14Fouls12

Shots

21Total Shots8

5On Target5

13Off Target3

Passing

48%Possession52%

Goalkeeping

5Saves4

Discipline

14Fouls12

4Yellow Cards7

0Red Cards1

1Offsides2