Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Atlético Vinotinto

Guayaquil City FC

FT

3 – 2

HT: 1 – 0

Atlético Vinotinto

J. J. Ayovi Caicedo 66'

A. Naula 55'

Y. Rodriguez 42'

A. Bonilla 87'

P. Vargas 52'

4/17/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 5Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Guayaquil City FC57%

×Draw26%

Atlético Vinotinto17%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guayaquil City FCExpected goals in this matchAtlético Vinotinto

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

0.68

Guayaquil City FC

1.50

Atlético Vinotinto

0.68

Guayaquil City FC creates 121% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 16 away

1.80

creates per match

0.81

0.55

allows per match

1.19

creates per match

Guayaquil City FC

1.80

Atlético Vinotinto

0.81

allows per match

Guayaquil City FC

0.55

Atlético Vinotinto

1.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guayaquil City FC ↓

Atlético Vinotinto →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Guayaquil City FC or draw

83%

Guayaquil City FC or Atlético Vinotinto

74%

Draw or Atlético Vinotinto

43%

Winning margin

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

30%

Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

78%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

44%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

19%

Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals

49%

Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals

15%

Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

77%

Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)

23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

27%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guayaquil City FC at home — creates 1.80, concedes 0.55 · 20 matches

Atlético Vinotinto away — creates 0.81, concedes 1.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.80 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.50

Atlético Vinotinto attack 0.81 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.68

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Guayaquil City FC scores more

57%

level

26%

Atlético Vinotinto scores more

17%

Guayaquil City FC at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Guayaquil City FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

42'

52'

55'

66'

87'

Guayaquil

Atlético

12

26

21

4

20

5

3

7

10

9

24

1

3

31

19

⚽

15

11

6

17

20

10

70

Manager: P. Gavilánez

Guayaquil City FC substitutes

4Ladines38Cetré9Palma5Palma8Quintero12Caicedo21Ordóñez23Angulo27Santacruz

Manager: L. Soler

Atlético Vinotinto substitutes

11Kouffaty18Bonilla50Conforme8Zambrano13Paz2Piñeiros6Sánchez31Barragán40Porozo97Cangá

Liga Pro Serie B: Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Atlético Vinotinto

Guayaquil City FC beat Atlético Vinotinto 3-2 in Liga Pro Serie B on April 17, 2025.

Goals: Y. Rodriguez (42'), P. Vargas (52'), A. Naula (55'), J. J. Ayovi Caicedo (66'), A. Bonilla (87').

The match was played at Estadio Christian Benítez Betancourt in Guayaquil.

Guayaquil City FC vs Atlético Vinotinto — Liga Pro Serie B 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Liga Pro Serie B: Guayaquil City FC 3–2 Atlético Vinotinto