Atlético Vinotinto 3–2 Guayaquil City FC

Atlético Vinotinto

FT

3 – 2

HT: 2 – 0

Guayaquil City FC

P. Vargas 50', 31'

P. Vidal 18'

E. A. Angulo Avila 89'

J. Ordonez 70'

6/26/2025

Liga Pro Serie B · Round 15Estadio Arena CHUBB

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Vinotinto53%

×Draw26%

Guayaquil City FC21%

✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

48.6%

Always home

43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético VinotintoExpected goals in this matchGuayaquil City FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.88

Atlético Vinotinto

1.55

Guayaquil City FC

0.88

Atlético Vinotinto creates 76% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 19 away

2.31

creates per match

1.00

0.75

allows per match

0.79

creates per match

Atlético Vinotinto

2.31

Guayaquil City FC

1.00

allows per match

Atlético Vinotinto

0.75

Guayaquil City FC

0.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Vinotinto+0.00on par

Guayaquil City FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under56
Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No54
Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Vinotinto ↓

Guayaquil City FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–18%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–014%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

70%30%2.5

44%56%3.5

23%77%4.5

10%90%

Double chance

Atlético Vinotinto or draw

79%

Atlético Vinotinto or Guayaquil City FC

74%

Draw or Guayaquil City FC

47%

Winning margin

Atlético Vinotinto wins by 2+

28%

Guayaquil City FC wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Atlético Vinotinto 1+ goals

79%

Atlético Vinotinto 2+ goals

46%

Atlético Vinotinto 3+ goals

20%

Guayaquil City FC 1+ goals

59%

Guayaquil City FC 2+ goals

22%

Guayaquil City FC 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Atlético Vinotinto (draw refunded)

71%

Guayaquil City FC (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

34%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Vinotinto at home — creates 2.31, concedes 0.75 · 16 matches

Guayaquil City FC away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.79 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Vinotinto attack 2.31 + Guayaquil City FC defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.55

Guayaquil City FC attack 1.00 + Atlético Vinotinto defence 0.75 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Atlético Vinotinto scores more

53%

level

26%

Guayaquil City FC scores more

21%

Atlético Vinotinto at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Atlético Vinotinto will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

31'

50'

70'

89'

Atlético

Guayaquil

Manager: L. Soler

Manager: P. Gavilánez