Guastatoya 4–1 Deportivo Sanarate: Result & Stats

Guastatoya

FT

4 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Deportivo Sanarate

5/8/2021

Liga Nacional · Clausura - Quarter-finalsEstadio David Cordón Hichos

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 35+ matches

Guastatoya57%

×Draw23%

Deportivo Sanarate20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

GuastatoyaExpected goals in this matchDeportivo Sanarate

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

0.96

Guastatoya

1.79

Deportivo Sanarate

0.96

Guastatoya creates 86% more chances

Season form · 152 home / 35 away

1.59

creates per match

1.09

0.82

allows per match

2.00

creates per match

Guastatoya

1.59

Deportivo Sanarate

1.09

allows per match

Guastatoya

0.82

Deportivo Sanarate

2.00

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guastatoya+0.00on par

Deportivo Sanarate+0.00on par

Total goals

Over52
Under48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes51
No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guastatoya ↓

Deportivo Sanarate →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–16%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–111%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–110%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–16%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

76%24%2.5

52%48%3.5

30%70%4.5

14%86%

Double chance

Guastatoya or draw

80%

Guastatoya or Deportivo Sanarate

77%

Draw or Deportivo Sanarate

43%

Winning margin

Guastatoya wins by 2+

32%

Deportivo Sanarate wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Guastatoya 1+ goals

83%

Guastatoya 2+ goals

53%

Guastatoya 3+ goals

26%

Deportivo Sanarate 1+ goals

62%

Deportivo Sanarate 2+ goals

25%

Deportivo Sanarate 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Guastatoya (draw refunded)

74%

Deportivo Sanarate (draw refunded)

26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guastatoya at home — creates 1.59, concedes 0.82 · 152 matches

Deportivo Sanarate away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.00 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guastatoya attack 1.59 + Deportivo Sanarate defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.79

Deportivo Sanarate attack 1.09 + Guastatoya defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Guastatoya scores more

57%

level

23%

Deportivo Sanarate scores more

20%

Guastatoya at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Guastatoya will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff