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Deportivo Sanarate vs Guastatoya — Liga Nacional 2019

Deportivo Sanarate
Deportivo Sanarate
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Guastatoya
Guastatoya
10/14/2020Liga NacionalLiga Nacional · Apertura - 6Estadio Municipal de Sanarate

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 36+ matches

Deportivo Sanarate45%
×Draw30%
Guastatoya25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Deportivo Sanarate
1.21
Guastatoya
0.82

Deportivo Sanarate creates 48% more chances

Season form · 36 home / 152 away

creates per match

Deportivo Sanarate
1.11
Guastatoya
0.73

allows per match

Deportivo Sanarate
0.92
Guastatoya
1.30

finishing

Deportivo Sanarate+0.00on par
Guastatoya+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Deportivo Sanarate ↓

Guastatoya →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Deportivo Sanarate or draw
75%
Deportivo Sanarate or Guastatoya
70%
Draw or Guastatoya
55%

Winning margin

Deportivo Sanarate wins by 2+
20%
Guastatoya wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Deportivo Sanarate 1+ goals
70%
Deportivo Sanarate 2+ goals
34%
Deportivo Sanarate 3+ goals
12%
Guastatoya 1+ goals
56%
Guastatoya 2+ goals
20%
Guastatoya 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Deportivo Sanarate (draw refunded)
64%
Guastatoya (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Deportivo Sanarate at home — creates 1.11, concedes 0.92 · 36 matches

Guastatoya away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.30 · 152 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Deportivo Sanarate attack 1.11 + Guastatoya defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.21

Guastatoya attack 0.73 + Deportivo Sanarate defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 0.82

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Deportivo Sanarate scores more
45%
level
30%
Guastatoya scores more
25%

Deportivo Sanarate at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Deportivo Sanarate will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Deportivo Sanarate vs Guastatoya

Guastatoya beat Deportivo Sanarate 2-1 in Liga Nacional on October 14, 2020.

The match was played at Estadio Municipal de Sanarate in Sanarate.