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Guarani U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Guarani U20
Guarani U20advanced
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Desportivo Brasil U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
Kewen 64' (pen), 56'
9/13/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round of 32Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 23+ matches

Guarani U2055%
×Draw22%
Desportivo Brasil U2023%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani U20
1.91
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.16

Guarani U20 creates 65% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 23 away

creates per match

Guarani U20
2.21
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.43

allows per match

Guarani U20
0.88
Desportivo Brasil U20
1.61

finishing

Guarani U20+0.00on par
Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Over: 59Under: 4159%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes: 58No: 4258%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani U20 ↓

Desportivo Brasil U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
37%63%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Guarani U20 or draw
77%
Guarani U20 or Desportivo Brasil U20
78%
Draw or Desportivo Brasil U20
45%

Winning margin

Guarani U20 wins by 2+
32%
Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Guarani U20 1+ goals
85%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
57%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
30%
Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals
69%
Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals
32%
Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
70%
Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
30%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani U20 at home — creates 2.21, concedes 0.88 · 24 matches

Desportivo Brasil U20 away — creates 1.43, concedes 1.61 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani U20 attack 2.21 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.91

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.43 + Guarani U20 defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Guarani U20 scores more
55%
level
22%
Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more
23%

Guarani U20 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Guarani U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

56'
Kewen
64'
KewenPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Guarani U20 vs Desportivo Brasil U20

Guarani U20 beat Desportivo Brasil U20 2-0 in Paulista - U20 on September 13, 2025.

Goals: Kewen (56', 64' pen).

The match was played at Estádio Brinco de Ouro da Princesa in Campinas, São Paulo.