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Desportivo Brasil U20 vs Guarani U20 — Paulista - U20 2026

Desportivo Brasil U20
Desportivo Brasil U20
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guarani U20
Guarani U20advanced
Unknown 45'
9/5/2025Paulista - U20Paulista - U20 · Round of 32Centro de Treinamento Desportivo Brasil

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Desportivo Brasil U2039%
×Draw26%
Guarani U2035%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.37
Guarani U20
1.29

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 25 home / 22 away

creates per match

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.92
Guarani U20
1.45

allows per match

Desportivo Brasil U20
1.12
Guarani U20
0.82

finishing

Desportivo Brasil U20+0.00on par
Guarani U20+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 50Over: 5050%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes: 54No: 4654%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Desportivo Brasil U20 ↓

Guarani U20 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–19%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Desportivo Brasil U20 or draw
65%
Desportivo Brasil U20 or Guarani U20
74%
Draw or Guarani U20
61%

Winning margin

Desportivo Brasil U20 wins by 2+
18%
Guarani U20 wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Desportivo Brasil U20 1+ goals
75%
Desportivo Brasil U20 2+ goals
40%
Desportivo Brasil U20 3+ goals
16%
Guarani U20 1+ goals
72%
Guarani U20 2+ goals
37%
Guarani U20 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Desportivo Brasil U20 (draw refunded)
52%
Guarani U20 (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
42%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Desportivo Brasil U20 at home — creates 1.92, concedes 1.12 · 25 matches

Guarani U20 away — creates 1.45, concedes 0.82 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Desportivo Brasil U20 attack 1.92 + Guarani U20 defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.37

Guarani U20 attack 1.45 + Desportivo Brasil U20 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Desportivo Brasil U20 scores more
39%
level
26%
Guarani U20 scores more
35%

Desportivo Brasil U20 at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Desportivo Brasil U20 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

45'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Paulista - U20: Desportivo Brasil U20 0–1 Guarani U20

Guarani U20 beat Desportivo Brasil U20 1-0 in Paulista - U20 on September 5, 2025.

Goals: ? (45').

The match was played at Centro de Treinamento Desportivo Brasil in Porto Feliz, São Paulo.