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Guarani MG vs Democrata SL — Mineiro - 2 2026

Guarani MG
Guarani MG
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Democrata SL
Democrata SL
6/9/2025Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 8Arena SICOOB DIVICRED

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Guarani MG30%
×Draw29%
Democrata SL41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guarani MG
0.98
Democrata SL
1.19

Democrata SL creates 21% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 40 away

creates per match

Guarani MG
1.00
Democrata SL
0.97

allows per match

Guarani MG
1.40
Democrata SL
0.97

finishing

Guarani MG+0.00on par
Democrata SL+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 63Over: 3763%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 57Yes: 4357%No
  • No57
  • Yes43

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani MG ↓

Democrata SL →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–114%
0–28%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
17%83%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guarani MG or draw
59%
Guarani MG or Democrata SL
71%
Draw or Democrata SL
70%

Winning margin

Guarani MG wins by 2+
11%
Democrata SL wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Guarani MG 1+ goals
62%
Guarani MG 2+ goals
26%
Guarani MG 3+ goals
8%
Democrata SL 1+ goals
70%
Democrata SL 2+ goals
33%
Democrata SL 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Guarani MG (draw refunded)
43%
Democrata SL (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
30%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani MG at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.40 · 20 matches

Democrata SL away — creates 0.97, concedes 0.97 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani MG attack 1.00 + Democrata SL defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.98

Democrata SL attack 0.97 + Guarani MG defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guarani MG scores more
30%
level
29%
Democrata SL scores more
41%

Democrata SL at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Guarani MG 0–0 Democrata SL

Guarani MG and Democrata SL drew 0-0 in Mineiro - 2 on June 9, 2025.

The match was played at Arena SICOOB DIVICRED in Divinópolis, Minas Gerais.