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Democrata SL vs Guarani MG — Mineiro - 2 2026

Democrata SL
Democrata SL
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Guarani MG
Guarani MG
Unknown 63'
Pedrinho 15'
5/19/2025Mineiro - 2Mineiro - 2 · Round 4Arena do Jacaré

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Democrata SL46%
×Draw30%
Guarani MG24%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Democrata SL
1.21
Guarani MG
0.80

Democrata SL creates 51% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

creates per match

Democrata SL
1.27
Guarani MG
0.95

allows per match

Democrata SL
0.65
Guarani MG
1.15

finishing

Democrata SL+0.00on par
Guarani MG+0.00on par

Total goals

Under: 67Over: 3367%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No: 61Yes: 3961%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Democrata SL ↓

Guarani MG →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–016%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–18%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Democrata SL or draw
76%
Democrata SL or Guarani MG
70%
Draw or Guarani MG
54%

Winning margin

Democrata SL wins by 2+
20%
Guarani MG wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Democrata SL 1+ goals
70%
Democrata SL 2+ goals
34%
Democrata SL 3+ goals
12%
Guarani MG 1+ goals
55%
Guarani MG 2+ goals
19%
Guarani MG 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Democrata SL (draw refunded)
65%
Guarani MG (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
26%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Democrata SL at home — creates 1.27, concedes 0.65 · 37 matches

Guarani MG away — creates 0.95, concedes 1.15 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Democrata SL attack 1.27 + Guarani MG defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.21

Guarani MG attack 0.95 + Democrata SL defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Democrata SL scores more
46%
level
30%
Guarani MG scores more
24%

Democrata SL at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Democrata SL will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'
Pedrinho
63'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Mineiro - 2: Democrata SL 1–1 Guarani MG

Democrata SL and Guarani MG drew 1-1 in Mineiro - 2 on May 19, 2025.

Goals: Pedrinho (15'), ? (63').

The match was played at Arena do Jacaré in Sete Lagoas, Minas Gerais.