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Guaraní de Trinidad vs Fernando De La Mora — Division Intermedia 2018

Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
M. Davalos 31'
A. Roa 90+4'
G. Velazquez 45'
5/24/2022Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 9Estadio Don Carlos Memmel

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Guaraní de Trinidad35%
×Draw29%
Fernando De La Mora37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.09
Fernando De La Mora
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 32 home / 113 away

creates per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
0.91
Fernando De La Mora
1.16

allows per match

Guaraní de Trinidad
1.09
Fernando De La Mora
1.27

finishing

Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par
Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Under
  • Under62
  • Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guaraní de Trinidad ↓

Fernando De La Mora →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
38%62%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Guaraní de Trinidad or draw
63%
Guaraní de Trinidad or Fernando De La Mora
71%
Draw or Fernando De La Mora
65%

Winning margin

Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
14%
Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
66%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
30%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
10%
Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
68%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
31%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
49%
Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guaraní de Trinidad at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.09 · 32 matches

Fernando De La Mora away — creates 1.16, concedes 1.27 · 113 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 0.91 + Fernando De La Mora defence 1.27 → ÷2 → 1.09

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.16 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
35%
level
29%
Fernando De La Mora scores more
37%

Fernando De La Mora at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

31'
M. Davalos
45'
G. Velazquez
90+4'
A. Roa

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Division Intermedia: Guaraní de Trinidad 1–2 Fernando De La Mora

Fernando De La Mora beat Guaraní de Trinidad 2-1 in Division Intermedia on May 24, 2022.

Goals: M. Davalos (31'), G. Velazquez (45'), A. Roa (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Don Carlos Memmel in Cambyretá.