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Fernando De La Mora vs Guaraní de Trinidad — Division Intermedia 2018

Fernando De La Mora
Fernando De La Mora
FT
3 – 1
Guaraní de Trinidad
Guaraní de Trinidad
7/20/2021Division IntermediaDivision Intermedia · Round 19Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 32+ matches

Fernando De La Mora44%
×Draw28%
Guaraní de Trinidad29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Fernando De La Mora
1.33
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.02

Fernando De La Mora creates 30% more chances

Season form · 115 home / 32 away

creates per match

Fernando De La Mora
1.31
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.06

allows per match

Fernando De La Mora
0.99
Guaraní de Trinidad
1.34

finishing

Fernando De La Mora+0.00on par
Guaraní de Trinidad+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Under
  • Under58
  • Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Fernando De La Mora ↓

Guaraní de Trinidad →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
42%58%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Fernando De La Mora or draw
71%
Fernando De La Mora or Guaraní de Trinidad
72%
Draw or Guaraní de Trinidad
56%

Winning margin

Fernando De La Mora wins by 2+
20%
Guaraní de Trinidad wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Fernando De La Mora 1+ goals
74%
Fernando De La Mora 2+ goals
38%
Fernando De La Mora 3+ goals
15%
Guaraní de Trinidad 1+ goals
64%
Guaraní de Trinidad 2+ goals
27%
Guaraní de Trinidad 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Fernando De La Mora (draw refunded)
60%
Guaraní de Trinidad (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
34%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Fernando De La Mora at home — creates 1.31, concedes 0.99 · 115 matches

Guaraní de Trinidad away — creates 1.06, concedes 1.34 · 32 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Fernando De La Mora attack 1.31 + Guaraní de Trinidad defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.33

Guaraní de Trinidad attack 1.06 + Fernando De La Mora defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Fernando De La Mora scores more
44%
level
28%
Guaraní de Trinidad scores more
29%

Fernando De La Mora at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Fernando De La Mora will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Fernando De La Mora 3 – 1 Guaraní de Trinidad

Fernando De La Mora beat Guaraní de Trinidad 3-1 in Division Intermedia on July 20, 2021.

The match was played at Estadio Emiliano Ghezzi in Fernando de la Mora.