Guarani de Palhoça 1–1 Carlos Renaux

Guarani de Palhoça

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Carlos Renaux

7/21/2024

Catarinense - 2 · Round 9Estádio Renato Silveira

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Guarani de Palhoça41%

×Draw29%

Carlos Renaux31%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Guarani de PalhoçaExpected goals in this matchCarlos Renaux

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.22

1.02

Guarani de Palhoça

1.22

Carlos Renaux

1.02

Guarani de Palhoça creates 20% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 22 away

1.21

creates per match

1.09

0.96

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Guarani de Palhoça

1.21

Carlos Renaux

1.09

allows per match

Guarani de Palhoça

0.96

Carlos Renaux

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Guarani de Palhoça+0.00on par

Carlos Renaux+0.00on par

Total goals

Under61
Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Guarani de Palhoça ↓

Carlos Renaux →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–113%

1–27%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–18%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

39%61%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Guarani de Palhoça or draw

69%

Guarani de Palhoça or Carlos Renaux

71%

Draw or Carlos Renaux

59%

Winning margin

Guarani de Palhoça wins by 2+

18%

Carlos Renaux wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Guarani de Palhoça 1+ goals

70%

Guarani de Palhoça 2+ goals

34%

Guarani de Palhoça 3+ goals

12%

Carlos Renaux 1+ goals

64%

Carlos Renaux 2+ goals

27%

Carlos Renaux 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Guarani de Palhoça (draw refunded)

57%

Carlos Renaux (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Guarani de Palhoça at home — creates 1.21, concedes 0.96 · 24 matches

Carlos Renaux away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Guarani de Palhoça attack 1.21 + Carlos Renaux defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.22

Carlos Renaux attack 1.09 + Guarani de Palhoça defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Guarani de Palhoça scores more

41%

level

29%

Carlos Renaux scores more

31%

Guarani de Palhoça at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Guarani de Palhoça will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff